Oracle
is correlated to global warming!
When performing predictive modeling, it’s the
strength of the correlation that determines the validity of an
observation, and while it’s interesting to understand the root
causation behind the correlation, it’s the strength of the
correlation that matters.
"Predictions are
difficult, especially about the future".
Yogi Berra
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Dr. Carolyn Hamm goes into great detail on the use of
correlation strength in her recommended book
Oracle Data Mining: Mining Gold from your Data Warehouse.
Winston Churchill once said "The farther you can
look into the past, the farther you can see into the future",
and this applies to Oracle data as well,
Oracle knows
this, and they have invested heavily in
predictive modeling tools such as the "intelligent
advisors" and the SGA and PGA advice tools: |
For an example of the use of correlation in
science, physicians noted a high correlation between patients taking
the anti-depressant drug Wellbutrin (generic name Bupropion) and
quitting smoking. The
strength of this correlation was statistically significant and had
predictive validity, leading to the use of Wellbutrin as a quit
smoking aid, under the name Zyban.
The doctors don’t understand how using this
drug helps people quit smoking, they only know that there is a
strong correlation, and that’s all that matters.
(BTW, it works, I used it and I have not had a cigarette
since 2008!)
Does Oracle cause Global Warming?
For centuries, scientists have used statistically significant
correlations for its predictive validity. If Event “A”
correlates Event “B” with 95% predictive validity, then you can use
this fact to predict events, even if you don’t know the root cause
of the correlation.
While it might be nice to unravel the cause, it’s the science of
the correlation that matters.
On the other hand, there may be no causation at
all behind items that are highly correlated, simply coincidence!
For example, according to Google trends,
Oracle and global warming are correlated. Does this
correlation imply causation? (1)
There are also questions about the validity of
Goggle trends itself. For example, I found this Google Trends
keyword suggestion to be creepy:
(1)
There is not any scientific proof that global
warming is tied to human activity
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